A Russian Drone Meandered 70 Miles Behind Ukrainian Lines, And Leisurely Selected Three Ukrainian MiGs to Blow Up
Ukrainian air-defenses have collapsed
How desperate is Ukraine’s shortage of air-defense missiles? On or just before Thursday, a Russian drone flew at least 70 miles from Russian lines in southern Ukraine, parked overhead of the Ukrainian air base in Dnipro and walked in long-range rocket fire that apparently damaged, if not destroyed, three Ukrainian air force Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters.
We can’t confirm that all three MiGs were operational. While Ukrainian technicians have, since 2014, recovered potentially dozens of unflyable MiGs in order to rebuild them for front-line service, it’s possible they’ve left untouched some of the more derelict airframes.
We know the Ukrainian air force’s 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade stages MiGs at Dnipro, but we don’t know that the MiGs the Russians plinked were those same jets.
Whether the Ukrainian air force lost a few MiGs—permanently or temporarily—isn’t really the problem. Thanks to foreign donations and the recovery of stored airframes, the air force still has around as many active fighters today as it had on the eve of the wider Russian invasion in February 2022. Moreover, the first of potentially 60 or more ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16s are due to arrive in Ukraine in a few weeks.
No, the bigger problem is that Ukraine no longer reliably can defend its air space.
More Russian drones, cruise missiles and rockets are getting through the air-defenses of major Ukrainian cities and hitting homes, schools and power plants. More Russian air force Sukhoi Su-25 attack jets are ranging directly over the front line, firing unguided rockets at unprotected Ukrainian troops. More Russian reconnaissance drones are ranging deep behind the front and spotting targets for long-range fires.
How this has happened is no secret. In October, U.S. president Joe Biden proposed to spend another $61 billion buying weapons for Ukraine, likely including many hundreds of Patriot, Hawk and Stinger air-defense missiles.
But Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives refused to vote on the proposal. For more than six months.
While Ukraine’s European allies did their best to make good the air-defense shortfall—Germany even donated to Ukraine a third Patriot battery, boosting the overall Ukrainian inventory to four batteries—they couldn’t fully replace the American aid Ukraine had been counting on.
The inevitable happened. “We ran out of all missiles,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky told PBS NewsHour in an interview that aired on Monday.
The April 11 Russian missile raid on the Trypillia thermal power plant outside Kyiv was an inflection point. The Russians fired 11 cruise missiles at the plant. Ukrainian air-defenses shot down seven of the missiles before their own magazines emptied out. The other four Russian missiles hit the plant—and burned it to the ground.
In the context of the Trypillia attack, the bombardment of the Dnipro air base should come as no surprise. Russian warplanes, drones and missiles now can strike anywhere in Ukraine—and at minimal risk to themselves. It’s hard to overstate how perilous this is for the Ukrainian war effort.
Help is coming, however belatedly. The Republican speaker of the U.S. House, Louisiana representative Mike Johnson, finally is bringing to a vote Biden’s proposal to spend $61 billion on weapons and other aid for Ukraine through the end of the year.
The long-delayed vote, which is strongly opposed by a few Republicans who are beholden to Russia, is scheduled for Saturday—and is expected to pass. If Pentagon officials have any idea what’s really going on in Ukraine, they’ve already identified air-defense missiles they can speed to Ukraine immediately following the vote.
The more, the better. Ukraine must reinforce its air defenses all across the country.
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