A Ukrainian Brigade Collapsed Outside Prohres. Which One?
There seem to be two main candidates.
Sometime last week, a Ukrainian brigade collapsed west of Ocheretyne, outside the ruins of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. In a heady several days, a clutch of Russian motor rifle regiments advanced four miles to the village of Prohres—ultimately cutting off two battalions from the Ukrainian army’s 31st Mechanized Brigade.
If this dire situation sounds familiar, it’s because it’s happened before—and in the same area. The purported collapse of the Ukrainian army’s 115th Mechanized Brigade in late April allowed the Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade to advance from the outskirts of Avdiivka to Ocheretyne.
It’s unclear which Ukrainian brigade cut and run last week: both the Ukrainian Deep State analysis group and Ukrainian correspondent Yuriy Butusov have fingered a single Ukrainian brigade for the debacle around Prohres—but neither has identified the brigade.
There seem to be two main candidates: the army’s 110th Mechanized Brigade and the territorial defense force’s 111th Territorial Brigade, both of which have been in the sector west of Avdiivka alongside the army’s 31st and 47th Mechanized Brigades.
Whichever brigade folded, it’s important to stress: the collapse isn’t the fault of the rank-and-file troopers. “The main problem in terms of intensive actions is primarily in the management and organization of our actions,” Butusov explained. “The Russian command attacks in the first place those brigades who have the weakest management and organization, weak management and coordination.”
The 110th Mechanized Brigade has had a hard war. For more than a year, the brigade garrisoned Avdiivka. Squatting in rubble under steady Russian bombardment, the 2,000-person brigade waited for the inevitable Russian attack. It finally came in October, when a multi-brigade Russian force with no fewer than 30,000 troops attacked from multiple directions.
The outcome was never really in doubt. The 110th Brigade was desperately short of ammunition, mostly due to Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Congress delaying further U.S. aid to Ukraine starting the same month the Russians attacked Avdiivka.
In mid-February, the 110th Brigade retreated, leaving behind potentially hundreds of casualties and handing what was left of Avdiivka to Russia. After a few weeks of rest, the brigade was back on the new front line west of the ruined city. In recent months, its air-defense troops claim to have shot down several Russian air force Sukhoi Su-25 attack jets.
The 111th Territorial Brigade is less storied. It’s been fighting in the east since 2022. Like most territorial brigades, it’s lightly-armed. The heaviest vehicles we know for sure the brigade operates are trucks with old KS-19 100-millimeter guns bolted onto their backs.
Whichever brigade collapsed around Prohres—and to be clear, it might not be the 110th or the 111th—the unit’s weaponry doesn’t seem to be the main factor. Even the best-armed brigade is only as effective as its commanders. And too many of the Ukrainian commanders on the ground around Prohres are failing.
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Could the Ukrainian Army’s organisational structure be contributing to such failures? They have no higher commands between brigade and front - no divisions, corps or armies. This lack of any structure in between might make it harder to coordinate at a local level between adjoining brigades and encourage micromanagement by senior commanders at front level.
Difficult to press “Like” on this but thanks for the objective reporting.