JASSM Cruise Missiles for Ukraine: It's Now or (Practically) Never
A budgetary crisis forces the Pentagon to move quickly if it's going to give Ukraine JASSMs anytime soon
The administration of U.S. president Joe Biden spent six month waiting out, and politically outmaneuvering, a contingent of pro-Russia Republican lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives which, starting in October, blocked $61 billion in further U.S. aid to Ukraine.
That aid finally passed, over Republican objections, in April. But now a key part of that aid package is about to expire—and the administration’s fix is a partial one.
The April aid included $7.8 billion in so-called “presidential drawdown authority,” or PDA. That authority allows the president to donate surplus U.S. weaponry to allied countries and then replace the donated weapons with newly-built ones meant for American use. That way, U.S. troops maintain their existing readiness.
Congress sets monetary caps on the drawdown authority—and also assigns expiration dates. In the case of the April aid, the expiration date is Sept. 30: the end of the 2024 fiscal year.
The problem is that Biden so far has used just $1.8 billion of the $7.8 billion in PDA that his administration fought so hard for—sending to Ukraine, among other things, surplus M-2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, M-113 armored personnel carriers, artillery ammunition and anti-tank missiles.
Biden has only a few days to use the other $6 billion.
There was an opportunity to extend the expiration date. Lawmakers are still negotiating the U.S. government’s 2025 budget, and to give themselves more time without shutting down the government after Sept. 30, they plan to pass—any day now—a short-term funding patch with money through December.
The problem is that Republicans control the House—the same Republicans who blocked Ukraine aid between October and April. Unsurprisingly, when Speaker of the House Mike Johnson revealed the text for the funding patch this weekend, it didn’t include language extending the PDA deadline. In other words, the budget lets $6 billion in Ukraine aid expire.
The Democratic-led U.S. Senate could amend the patch with a new and later deadline, but that would take time—and would still require Republicans to vote for it. So there’s a plan B, according to Politico’s Paul McLeary, Joe Gould and Connor O’Brien.
“This new workaround—which requires the administration to declare that it will use the remaining aid in the coming months—will allow the Pentagon to continue to flow weapons to Kyiv, McLeary, Gould and O’Brien reported. “Yet under this method, the U.S. won’t be allowed to introduce new types of equipment that haven’t been in previous shipments.”
Basically, the Biden administration would have to announce, presumably in the next six days, $6 billion worth of surplus U.S. weaponry for Ukraine. It could then spend the next year gradually shipping those weapons.
The administration wouldn’t have to specify the types of weapons it intends to ship. That is, as long as it subsequently only ships items Congress already tacitally has approved of in the process of overseeing previous PDA packages. In that way, the Pentagon should avoid running afoul of its oversight obligations to lawmakers.
It’s a statutory mess. And the main problem is obvious. Under the workaround, the Pentagon apparently would ship—for the next year or so—only the surplus weapon types the White House has specified before the end of the fiscal year. After that, there wouldn’t be any opportunity anytime soon to tweak the mix of donated weapons to account for Ukraine’s changing needs.
It’s not a catastrophe. Ukraine could continue to receive the most critical stuff, including artillery shells, anti-tank missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems ballistic missiles and armored vehicles such as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers.
But Ukraine reportedly is keen to get surplus U.S. Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles for its ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters. The 230-mile JASSM cruise missiles could replenish the Ukrainian air force’s deep-strike arsenal as ex-British Storm Shadow and ex-French SCALP-EG cruise missiles run out.
The Biden administration hasn’t yet pledged JASSMs to Ukraine, however. And the window is closing to add the missiles to the list of things the expiring PDA can cover through 2025. If the missiles aren’t in whatever huge arms packages the Pentagon announces in the next few days, they likely won’t be going to Ukraine unless, and until, lawmakers approve a whole new round of funding for the war effort … for 2026.
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