The Pentagon Is Preparing an Emergency Ammo Shipment That Could Save Ukraine's Most Vulnerable Town: Chasiv Yar
With artillery shells and missiles, the Chasiv Yar garrison could smash Russian assault groups and shoot down Russian jets
The Pentagon reportedly is preparing a billion-dollar consignment of weapons and ammunition to rush-ship to Ukraine as quickly as possible after the U.S. Senate finally votes on, and U.S. president Joe Biden signs, a long-delayed law authorizing $61 billion in U.S. military aid to the Ukrainian war effort.
Think of the aid package as the “Chasiv Yar emergency defense kit.” The package includes everything the Ukrainian garrison in that eastern town—arguably the most vulnerable town in Ukraine right now—needs to hang on: 155-millimeter artillery ammunition, Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger air-defense missiles.
The artillery could prevent Russian assault columns from reaching Chasiv Yar’s exposed canal district. The anti-tank missiles could take care of any Russian vehicles that do get through. The air-defense missiles could ward off those Russian Sukhoi Su-25 attack jets that have been flying with impunity over Chasiv Yar, directly attacking Ukrainian troops with brazenness that would have been suicidal just a few months ago.
Chasiv Yar is the second objective of Russia’s winter-spring offensive, which kicked off back in October as Ukraine’s own summer offensive finally sputtered to a halt.
The first objective, the eastern city of Avdiivka, fell to Russian regiments in February following a brutal, five-month battle—a battle whose outcome was never in doubt after Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives began delaying further U.S. aid to Ukraine, depriving the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka of artillery ammo and anti-tank and air-defense missiles.
Yes, the Ukrainians in Avdiivka fought hard, compensating for a shortage of heavy munitions by deploying more and more of the 100,000 first-person-view drones that Ukrainian workshops produce every month.
But a two-pound FPV lugging a pound of explosives over a distance of a few miles simply cannot replace a 100-pound artillery shell lobbing 25 pounds of explosives as far as 15 miles. “I am totally supportive of FPV drones,” Ukrainian drone-operator Kriegsforscher explained. “But you need understand something: that’s not a panacea. Not at all.”
Drones can hound exposed Russian infantry. But when those infantry are riding under armor, the FPVs become much less effective. Against the best up-armored tanks and fighting vehicles, FPVs’ lethality quickly drops off. Indeed, they work best merely finishing off vehicles that already have been immobilized by mines or artillery strikes.
Consider: when Ukrainian troops defeated a Russian assault on the eastern village of Tonenke recently, it wasn’t the FPVs that inflicted the most damage. “The biggest charge near Tonenke was stopped with the help of [anti-tank missiles] and artillery. And well-trained and motivated infantry,” Kriegsforscher wrote. “Not with the help of FPV drones. They [the drones] just finished the job.”
If the Tonenke fight is an example of what Ukrainian forces can do when they have enough heavy munitions in addition to FPV drones, the Avdiivka fight is a counterexample: it showed us what Ukrainian forces can’t do when they lack heavy munitions and only have FPV drones.
Without a resupply of shells and missiles, the Chasiv Yar garrison soon would have no choice but to retreat. Luckily for the garrison, the Republican speaker of the U.S. House—Louisiana representative Mike Johnson—finally brought Ukraine aid to a vote over the objections of the most pro-Russia lawmakers in his own party.
The aid passed the House last week with an overwhelming majority of votes. All that’s left is for the Senate to vote, and for the president to sign—possibly late tonight. Within days, the first fresh shipment of American weapons and ammo should be en route to Germany and Poland for onward transfer to Ukraine.
Be shocked if the bulk of the ammo doesn’t end up in Chasiv Yar with the Ukrainain army’s 41st and 42nd Mechanized Brigades and the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force’s 241st Brigade. Be shocked if those brigades don’t immediately start shooting 155-millimeter artillery and Javelins at Russian assault groups, and shooting Stingers at Russian Sukhois.
American munitions are coming. Cross your fingers that they arrive fast enough to save Chasiv Yar.
Read more:
