Ukraine Is Getting Around 90 Western-Made Fighters. It Wants 38 More.
Where could those extra jets come from?
While NATO officials were in Washington, D.C. for a major summit on Wednesday, Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced his government would ship to Ukraine six surplus Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters before the end of the year.
The defense ministry in Kyiv celebrated the announcement on social media. “+6 F-16s from Norway,” the ministry posted along with a fire emoji.
But the six F-16s aren’t additional F-16s. Norway reportedly plans eventually to give Ukraine 22 F-16s—a dozen flyable jets and 10 that are mostly useful as sources of spare parts. The Wednesday announcement regarding the six F-16s is about timing, not the overall size of the Norwegian fighter pledge.
No, the likely pledge—counting ex-Norwegian, Dutch, Danish and Belgian F-16AM/BMs—still is 85 active jets and 10 non-flyable jets acting as sources of spare parts. Eleven F-16s are at a base in Romania, where European instructors are training Ukrainian pilots. The first dozen or so operational jets should arrive in Ukraine any day now.
The balance of more than 60 operational F-16s should arrive in batches over the coming year or so, eventually joined by a small number of ex-French Dassault Mirage 2000s. In all, Ukraine should expect to take delivery of more than 90 Western-made fighters through 2025.
That’s too few, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said. “Until we have 128 aircraft, we will not be able to match them [the Russians] in the sky,” Zelensky said at the NATO summit. That’s the same number of jets he’s been calling for since last year.
Coincidentally, that’s roughly the pre-war strength of the Ukrainian air force’s fighter and bomber brigades. In 28 months of hard fighting, the Ukrainians have lost around 90 jets that the analysts at Oryx have confirmed.
To make good their losses, the Ukrainians have acquired from their European allies—North Macedonia, Poland and Slovakia—27 Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters and four Sukhoi Su-25 attack jets, and also restored from long-term storage potentially scores of replacement MiGs and Sukhois. Poland may provide an additional 15 MiG-29s.
The Ukrainian air force probably has nearly as many warplanes today as it did before the wider war in February 2022. So when Zelensky says he needs 128 fighters, what he really means is 128 additional fighters. Ninety or so have been pledged.
Where could the other 38 come from—and when? Belgium, Denmark, The Netherlands and Norway don’t have many, or any, more F-16s to give away. France might be able to scrounge a few extra Mirage 2000s as they retire. The United States has hundreds of old F-16s but hasn’t signaled any willingness to transfer them.
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