Ukraine May Cut Its Tank Force in Half
The vehicles are less useful in this new 'cautious' era dominated by drones
Ukraine has stood up a new tank battalion. But the formation of the independent 29th Tank Battalion—first reported by Militaryland—probably does not herald the expansion of the Ukrainian armor corps.
Indeed, it may signal a sharp reduction.
The tiny explosive drones that are everywhere all the time along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s 39-month wider war on Ukraine haven’t rendered tanks obsolete. But they have forced tank crews to operate extremely carefully—hiding most of the time in barns, garages or dugouts and rolling out only occasionally to fire a few shells before scurrying back under cover.
It’s a new “era of the cautious tank,” David Kirichenko, an analyst with the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C., announced in September.
Tanks are even more cautious now than they were last fall. “Overall, there is less armor being deployed to the front, especially compared to 2023,” Kirichenko said. “So we are still in the era of the cautious tank, or we could say that it has even gotten more cautious now.”
Shy tanks
The more cautious the tanks become, the less useful they are—and the less space they may occupy in the Ukrainian and Russian force structures moving forward.
As recently as a year ago, the Ukrainian ground forces had five tank brigades: the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 17th. All the brigade included several battalions, each with as many as 31 tanks.
Powerful formations, in theory. But the 5th Tank Brigade, a reserve unit, never really got organized—and never deployed to the front. And in a possible sign of things to come, the 17th Tank Brigade reorganized last winter, reducing its tank inventory to become the first of the Ukrainian army’s new heavy mechanized brigades.
The Ukrainian ground forces are adopting a new corps structure that places similar brigades fighting in the same sectors under a single command. It’s possible these corps—there should be 13 of them—will each have just one separate tank battalion such as the new 29th Tank Battalion.
The forces for these battalions—the tanks and crews—could come from the tank brigades, which “may be disbanded,” Militaryland reported. Meanwhile, the tank battalions in the mechanized, motorized and mountain brigades “will be reduced in size.”
Today, the Ukrainian military should have 30 or so tank battalions with around a thousand tanks. The possible reorganization could cut that structure in half. Fewer battalions—and many more cautious tanks in reserve to replace losses from drones.
Read more:
The Ukrainian Army Has Formed a New Kind of Brigade
The Ukrainian army has re-designated the 17th Tank Brigade. It now is the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade—the first of its type in the army.
I must talk with Grok to understand, because right now I can't really get it why tanks are this vulnerable to drones. It does indeed seem that, unless countermeasures are found, the era of tank armies is gone, or at least much reduced in size.