Ukrainian Drones Blew Up Hundreds of Thousands of Tons of Ammo At a Depot Near Moscow
But depot raids are more visually pleasing for Ukraine than they are effective
The Russian defense ministry’s Main Missile and Artillery Directorate, or GRAU, maintains around 20 munitions depots across Russia, together storing millions of tons of ammunition.
On Tuesday, Ukraine’s long-range drones struck one of them: the 51st GRAU Arsenal just east of Moscow and 320 miles from the border with Ukraine.
The arsenal exploded in a billowing fireball. See the video above. And a day later, the sprawling site was still burning. Fragments rained on the surrounding community as rounds cooked off.
The strike on the 51st GRAU arsenal may have destroyed hundreds of thousands of tons of munitions. It’s the latest in a series of Ukrainian strikes targeting munitions dumps. While incredibly dramatic—perfect fodder for celebratory posts on social media—it’s not clear these raids are having an immediate impact along the front line in Ukraine.
On Dec. 26, Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-24 bombers flung several British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles at a Shahed drone factory in Oryol Oblast, in western Russia 100 miles from the Ukrainian border. A follow-up attack on Jan. 26 compounded the damage. In total, at least 200 Shaheds burned.
A few months later on or just before March 13, long-range attack drones belonging to the Ukrainian defense intelligence agency hit a hidden drone manufacturing facility in Obukhovo, just outside Moscow.
And an overnight drone raid a week later on March 20 struck a cruise missile depot at the Russian air force’s Engels bomber base in southern Russia, 300 miles from the front line. The impacts triggered a succession of explosions that blew the roofs off of homes in the surrounding community—and reportedly destroyed 96 Kh-101 cruise missiles worth $960 million combined.
While it’s certainly better for the Ukrainians to blow up Russian ammo stocks than to not blow up Russian ammo stocks, it’s a challenge for Ukrainian planners to fold the depot strikes into a wider strategy that might alter the balance of power along the front line.
According to Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight, more than half of the observed Ukrainian strikes between September and February—many of them aimed at munitions stocks—“had limited impact” as workers rushed to fix the damaged facilities and Russian industry adapted to compensate for lost production.
Attacking more often, and with heavier munitions than lightweight attack drones, might inflict lasting damage, Frontelligence Insight concluded.
Weapons shortage
But Ukraine doesn’t get enough of the best foreign-made deep-strike munitions—Storm Shadows, similar French-made SCALP missiles and American-made ATACMS rockets—to mount an intensive campaign targeting Russian logistics. And it doesn’t yet build enough similar munitions, including Long Neptune cruise missiles, on its own.
The greater problem is that manpower-starved Ukrainian brigades lack the combat power to take advantage of even brief ammo shortages on the Russian side of the line of contact. “Ukraine was often not in a position to capitalize on [the raids],” explained Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
It’s not for no reason that, late last year, Ukrainian strike planners shifted their aim—and began launching more drone attacks on Russia’s delicate and economically vital oil infrastructure. They were hoping the damage to the oil industry would ultimately have greater impact than the damage to weapons depots.
They were right, it seems. Moscow swiftly negotiated with Kyiv for a 30-day moratorium on raids on energy infrastructure—a moratorium that both sides accused the other of violating, and which expired on April 18. It’s unclear whether the two governments have agreed to extend the pause.
Regardless, the moratorium never applied to munitions depots—and that might explain why the Ukrainians have resumed attacks on ammo dumps including GRAU facilities.
The depot raids might not have an immediate and measurable impact on the front line—yet—but with strikes on energy facilities recently off the table, they’re the best Ukraine’s deep-strike force can do.
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