Ukrainian Troops Have Isolated A Huge Swathe of Russia's Kursk Oblast
It's not clear Kyiv has enough reserves to exploit that isolation
In a heady four days starting on Friday, Ukrainian troops struck seemingly every major bridge across the Seym River in Russia’s Kursk Oblast northwest of the locus of the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk that kicked off on Aug. 6.
The destruction of the bridges in Glushkovo, Zvannoe and Karyzh—by ground-launched rockets and air-dropped bombs—has compelled the Russian northern grouping of forces to erect at least two pontoon bridges across the Seym. But it’s possible the Ukrainians have hit one of those bridges, as well.
The isolation of this 300-square-mile swathe of Kursk sets the stage for a possible second stage of Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. In 13 days, Ukrainian troops have advanced past the town of Sudzha, six miles from the Russia-Ukraine border, and consolidated control over several hundred square miles of Kursk.
Ukrainian forces are already pushing west toward that swathe of Kursk the bridge strikes are isolating from Russian supplies and reinforcements. On Aug. 18, the Ukrainian 501st Marine Battalion captured Apanasovka, eight miles east of Glushkovo.
To attack toward Glushkovo from Apanasovka, Ukrainian troops would have to cross the Seym in or around Komarovka, which lacks a bridge. The alternative is for Ukrainian troops to expand the invasion zone by crossing the border southwest of Glushkovo, Zvannoe and Karyzh. To, in other words, re-invade Kursk.
With the sector around Glushkovo, Zvannoe and Karyzh increasingly isolated from the rest of Kursk, Russian defenses in the sector should get weaker by the day. What’s less clear is whether Ukraine possesses adequate reserves for a major expansion of the invasion that exploits this weakness.
The Ukrainian military has already devoted some or all of no fewer than eight line brigades plus several separate battalions—drawn from the army, the air-assault forces, the marine corps and the territorial forces—to the invasion of Kursk. It’s a significant investment for a military that has just a hundred or so ground-combat brigades—and which has been struggling for months to keep all these brigades fully manned.
If it took parts of at least eight brigades to capture 300 square miles around Sudzha, it might take parts of another eight brigades to capture the 300 square miles between the border and Glushkovo, Zvannoe and Karyzh.
Where are those troops going to come from? Ukrainian defenses are already in a state of collapse around Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. If Ukraine has spare troops, shouldn’t it shore up Pokrovsk before it tries re-invading Kursk?
Read more: