What's Left of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Is On the Move
In early June, eight ships sailed from southern Russia into the Sea of Azov
The Russian Black Sea Fleet—what’s left of it—is on the move.
Satellite imagery indicated 11 large warships—out of around two dozen left in the regional fleet after two years of Ukrainian missile and drone raids—got underway starting on June 2.
The fleet had pulled most of its big ships from ports in occupied Crimea, most notably Sevastopol, following a series of Ukrainian strikes that damaged, burned or sank several Russian ships beginning last fall.
The vessels that got underway in Novorossiysk last week included two Kilo-class submarines, three minesweepers, two Vasily Bykov-class patrol ships, a pair of Buyan-M missile boats, a Tapir-class landing ship and two Ropucha-class landing ships.
At least eight of the ships—apparently excluding the subs—left Novorossiysk in a convoy on June 6 and sailed toward Crimea. But instead of sailing around the peninsula toward Sevastopol in the west, the convoy turned north and passed through the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov, adjacent to the Black Sea east of Crimea.
If the redeployment is protective, it might make sense. While Sea of Azov ports are closer to the Ukrainian coast than Novorossiysk is, Ukraine’s drone boats—which presumably launch from Ukrainian bases in the western Black Sea—might struggle to infiltrate the Sea of Azov.
The redeployment may also position those three surviving landing ships—increasingly rare types in the Black Sea Fleet—to take up ferry duties across the Kerch Strait. A Ukrainian missile raid in late May damaged two of the usual Kerch ferries, further throttling, however temporarily, Russian logistics into Crimea.
It’s important to stress: the Sea of Azov might be safer for Russian warships, but it’s not exactly safe. Indeed, there are reports the Ukrainians somehow struck a Russian ship in the Sea of Azov following the convoy’s arrival.
But the Russian vessels that remain on Crimea’s west coast are even more vulnerable. On June 6, Ukrainian drone boats reportedly chased down and sank a Russian Saturn-class tugboat in Lake Panske in western Crimea.
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